{"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","study":{"id":"position-correct-wallet-win-rate-2026-08","title":"Closed-FIFO-lot win rate and subsequent cumulative gross realized profitability","status":"aggregate-results-published","network":"solana-mainnet","publishedAt":"2026-08-19","articleUrl":"https://conyr.ai/blog/position-correct-solana-wallet-win-rate","resultsUrl":"https://conyr.ai/data/studies/position-correct-wallet-win-rate-2026-08/results.json","analysisReferenceRevision":"f7dced3559510911f6921c6ef8a6fa898af4aa01","revisionScope":"Local repository revision used to audit accounting semantics; this is not an attestation of the production deployment revision that emitted every source row."},"question":"Among wallets with sufficient decided closed-lot activity in both periods, was formation-period closed-FIFO-lot win rate associated with positive cumulative gross realized PnL on new lots entered and closed in the following period?","design":{"formationWindow":{"start":"2026-07-24T00:00:00Z","endExclusive":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","durationDays":13},"evaluationWindow":{"start":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","endExclusive":"2026-08-19T00:00:00Z","durationDays":13},"unitOfAnalysis":"wallet","accountingGrain":"A FIFO entry lot contributes one outcome when cumulative gross lot PnL is observed on its full-close event. The cumulative production field does not subtract the separately allocated entry and exit network-fee fields.","deduplication":"Events were deduplicated by wallet, mint, entry transaction and event index, exit transaction, and exit sequence; the latest retained record supplied the measured values.","exclusions":["Rows carrying a bot or arbitrage trade flag","Wallets present in the production malicious-wallet exclusion set","Breakeven closed lots and breakeven exit rows from their respective formation win-rate denominators","Evaluation lots entered before the evaluation window","Wallets with fewer than 10 decided closed lots in formation","Wallets with fewer than 3 decided FIFO entry lots both entered and fully closed in evaluation"],"cohortDefinition":{"top":"Formation closed-lot win rate at or above the eligible-wallet 90th-percentile cutoff.","bottom":"Formation closed-lot win rate at or below the eligible-wallet 10th-percentile cutoff.","ties":"All cutoff ties were retained, so threshold-defined cohort sizes can slightly exceed one tenth of the eligible sample."},"outcome":"Positive subsequent cumulative gross realized PnL: the sum across FIFO lots both entered and fully closed in the evaluation window was greater than zero. Separately allocated network-fee fields are not subtracted from this production lot field.","uncertainty":"Two-sided 95% Wilson score intervals for each binomial rate, using the nominal assumption that wallet outcomes are independent."},"sample":{"eligibleWallets":194610,"formationMinimumDecidedClosedLots":10,"evaluationMinimumDecidedClosedLots":3,"futureProfitableWallets":58411,"baselineFutureProfitableRatePct":30.014,"baselineFutureProfitableRateWilson95Pct":[29.811,30.218]},"closedLotWinRate":{"formationP10Pct":12.195121951219512,"formationP90Pct":60.16949152542373,"topCohort":{"wallets":19462,"futureProfitableWallets":11813,"futureProfitableRatePct":60.698,"futureProfitableRateWilson95Pct":[60.01,61.382],"medianFutureGrossRealizedPnlUsd":22.309285},"bottomCohort":{"wallets":19495,"futureProfitableWallets":2621,"futureProfitableRatePct":13.444,"futureProfitableRateWilson95Pct":[12.973,13.931],"medianFutureGrossRealizedPnlUsd":-53.699529},"topMinusBottomFutureProfitableRatePctPoints":47.253},"exitRowSensitivity":{"purpose":"A side-by-side sensitivity check using positive individual exit rows instead of positive fully closed FIFO lots. Production exit rows are classified from a fee-aware per-row field, while closed lots are classified from the cumulative field that is gross of separately stored fees, so this check changes both grain and fee treatment.","formationP10Pct":13.793103448275861,"formationP90Pct":62.5,"topCohort":{"wallets":19519,"futureProfitableWallets":12634,"futureProfitableRatePct":64.727,"futureProfitableRateWilson95Pct":[64.054,65.394]},"bottomCohort":{"wallets":19484,"futureProfitableWallets":2744,"futureProfitableRatePct":14.083,"futureProfitableRateWilson95Pct":[13.602,14.579]},"topMinusBottomFutureProfitableRatePctPoints":50.643,"correlationWithClosedLotWinRate":0.8915783217026766,"interpretation":"Both historical rates were strongly associated with the closed-only outcome in this window. This simple decile test does not establish that closed-lot win rate predicts better than exit-row win rate, and it cannot isolate accounting-grain effects because production fee treatment differs between the two formation fields."},"historicalObservations":[{"asOf":"2026-05-30","finding":"One internally observed wallet showed a 44.57% positive-exit-row rate and a 1.96% positive-closed-FIFO-lot rate, a 22.7x ratio and 42.61-percentage-point difference.","evidenceStatus":"Dated single-wallet aggregate retained in implementation history; the original response artifact was not retained, and differing production fee treatment means the gap cannot be attributed entirely to accounting grain."},{"finding":"Earlier notes referenced an approximately 79,000-wallet field-mapping exercise and a forward-profitability association.","evidenceStatus":"Not treated as validated study results because the original queries, cohort artifact and internally consistent aggregate output were not retained."}],"limitations":["This is an observational temporal association, not a randomized experiment or causal estimate.","The outcome is realized PnL on fully closed FIFO lots. Open, abandoned, transferred-out, or never-sold inventory is not marked to market, creating material closed-only survivorship bias.","Requiring evaluation-period closed lots conditions the sample on future activity and closure; results do not describe all wallets seen in formation.","The data source is a post-wipe streaming production corpus, not complete all-time wallet history.","Wallet addresses are not independent people; related or automated addresses may remain after the explicit exclusion filters.","Related wallet addresses can violate the independence assumption and make nominal Wilson intervals too narrow.","The production cumulative lot-PnL field is gross of separately allocated entry and exit network fees, so the outcome is not net profitability.","The exit-row sensitivity uses a fee-aware per-row formation field while the closed-lot formation field is fee-gross, so that comparison changes fee treatment as well as accounting grain.","Positive cumulative gross realized PnL is not risk-adjusted return, copy-trading performance, or a guarantee of future profit.","The aggregate result file omits proprietary query text, internal database identifiers, infrastructure details, raw wallet rows, and credentials."],"disclosure":{"public":["Study windows and eligibility thresholds","Accounting and deduplication semantics","Cohort sizes, counts, rates, Wilson intervals, cutoffs and medians","Side-by-side exit-row sensitivity result","Known evidence gaps and limitations"],"notPublic":["Proprietary query text and internal data topology","Raw wallet-level research rows","Private exclusion intelligence"]}}